Forecasting and risk taking

This research project is investigating the relationship between the accuracy of judgmental forecasting and risk-taking behaviour. Your participation is entirely voluntary and all responses will be treated in the strictest confidence.

The experiment has two separate parts followed by a short questionnaire at the end.

In the first part you will be asked to choose which of five forecasts you think will be most useful for a decision maker. The instructions will be presented after you start the experiment.

In the second part you will be asked to make a choice between different investment options. This is designed to assess your attitude to risk.

The exit questionnaire consists of 9 questions, which are intended to assess your style of thinking when you encounter uncertainty about the future.

Research Questions

  • To what extent is risk-taking behaviour associated with performance in judgmental forecasting?
  • How do different ways of thinking about uncertainty impact on performance in judgmental forecasting?

Thank you in advance for your participation!

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