Forecasting and risk taking

Forecasting and risk taking

This research project is investigating the relationship between the accuracy of judgmental forecasting and risk-taking behaviour. Your participation is entirely voluntary and all responses will be treated in the strictest confidence.

The experiment has two separate parts followed by a short questionnaire at the end.

In the first part you will be asked to choose which of five forecasts you think will be most useful for a decision maker. The instructions will be presented after you start the experiment.

In the second part you will be asked to make a choice between different investment options. This is designed to assess your attitude to risk.

The exit questionnaire consists of 9 questions, which are intended to assess your style of thinking when you encounter uncertainty about the future.

Research Questions

  • To what extent is risk-taking behaviour associated with performance in judgmental forecasting?
  • How do different ways of thinking about uncertainty impact on performance in judgmental forecasting?

Thank you in advance for your participation!


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  • PennyDropper

    There are some interesting concepts raised in the survey – well done and good luck! Speaking as a forecaster and someone about to graduate from a Master of Statistics course (and who should be studying for the last exam rather than participating in surveys and writing comments), I’m willing to provide some qualitative feedback on some of the questions; please email me if you would like some feedback.

    November 1, 2015 at 03:25

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