This research project is investigating the relationship between the accuracy of judgmental forecasting and risk-taking behaviour. Your participation is entirely voluntary and all responses will be treated in the strictest confidence. The experiment has two separate parts followed by a short questionnaire at the end. In the first part you will be asked to choose
The Golden Rule of Forecasting is, "be conservative" when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting. The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here.
This experiment provides access to the online tool Golden Rule for Forecasting Checklist software.
We are inviting you to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judgment, for 32 time series. The exercise consists of four rounds. Each round will contain 8 series and will be followed by a short questionnaire, while different types of information will be
Welcome to the study of cognitive abilities and Judgmental forecasting. The current study includes two separate experiments. The purpose of the first experiment is to assess your forecasting accuracy, in other words how good you are in predicting the course of a time series. There are detailed instructions and training rounds in the task, so do
Research Objectives/Research Questions This study examines the effectiveness of using a rolling training approach to improve the accuracy of such forecasts. A direct training scheme will enable forecasters to better understand the underlying pattern of the data by learning directly from their forecast errors. Such a scheme will drive the forecaster to focus on each