Category: Experiment

Forecasting and risk taking

This research project is investigating the relationship between the accuracy of judgmental forecasting and risk-taking behaviour. Your participation is entirely voluntary and all responses will be treated in the strictest confidence. The experiment has two separate parts followed by a short questionnaire at the end. In the first part you will be asked to choose

The Golden Rule of Forecasting

The Golden Rule of Forecasting is, "be conservative" when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting. The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here. This experiment provides access to the online tool Golden Rule for Forecasting Checklist software.

Direct rolling training for improving judgmental time series forecasting performance

Research Objectives/Research Questions This study examines the effectiveness of using a rolling training approach to improve the accuracy of such forecasts. A direct training scheme will enable forecasters to better understand the underlying pattern of the data by learning directly from their forecast errors. Such a scheme will drive the forecaster to focus on each