The Golden Rule of Forecasting

The Golden Rule of Forecasting is, “be conservative” when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting. The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here.

This experiment provides access to the online tool Golden Rule for Forecasting Checklist software.

Purpose and instructions:
1. Even if you are unfamiliar with forecasting, you…

Value of judgemental adjustments to promotional forecasting

Sales forecasting is becoming increasingly complex, due to a range of factors, such as the shortening of product life cycles, increasingly competitive markets, and aggressive marketing. Companies often use some form of Forecasting Support System (FSS) to integrate univariate statistical baseline forecasts with expert judgement from demand planners, essentially adding information from additional factors to the statistical forecasts. Promotional and…

Direct rolling training for improving judgmental time series forecasting performance

Research Objectives/Research Questions

This study examines the effectiveness of using a rolling training approach to improve the accuracy of such forecasts.
A direct training scheme will enable forecasters to better understand the underlying pattern of the data by learning directly from their forecast errors.
Such a scheme will drive the forecaster to focus on each series and its patterns separately, thus increasing forecasting…