The Golden Rule of Forecasting

The Golden Rule of Forecasting is, “be conservative” when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting. The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here.

This experiment provides access to the online tool Golden Rule for Forecasting Checklist software.

Purpose and instructions:
1. Even if you are unfamiliar with forecasting, you…