Can we rely on judgment to select the best forecasting model?

Model selection for forecasting problems has attracted much attention during the last 30 years. Many research studies have examined theoretically and empirically different statistical selection methodologies to identify the ‘optimal’ model. The model selection problem is of major practical importance, because if selections are to be done perfectly, substantial gains will achieved in terms of forecasting performance, usually up to 25-30%,…

Judgmental model selection for time series forecasting

We are inviting you to participate in a web-based judgmental forecasting exercise. You are asked to select the best model, based on your judgment, for 32 time series.

The exercise consists of four rounds. Each round will contain 8 series and will be followed by a short questionnaire, while different types of information will be provided on top of the estimated…